Saturday, October 6, 2012

AL MVP? Cabrera or Trout?

There's big debate going out there about who should win the American League MVP Award, the Tiger's Miguel Cabrera or the Angels' Mike Trout.  Cabrera just won baseball's first Triple Crown since 1967, he hit .330, with 44 HR's and 139 RBI's, he also led the American League in Slugging Percentage and OPS.  Trout, who will undoubtedly win the American League Rookie of the Year Award, had a great season too, he hit .326, with 30 HR's and 83 RBI's, he also lead the league in runs scored, stolen bases and the stat-head's all important WAR rating.  The stat-heads will tell you that the Triple Crown, while a great accomplishment, is an antiquated way of looking at stats and that WAR is a much better way to look at a players value to a team.  

For those of you not up to date in your sabermetrics, WAR grades players on 5 tools that take place in a game (getting on base, hitting for power, baserunning, fielding and throwing).  WAR then attempts to assign value, based on the number of runs a player creates by using each of those tools.  It then spits out a number that is suppose to tell you how many more wins a player would give a team as opposed to a "replacement level", or minor league/bench player at that position. 

I'm not quite sure that I'm ready to embrace the WAR number as the be-all and end-all of performance evaluation though.  Who would you rather have, Josh Hamilton or Ben Zobrist for example?  According to WAR, Zobrist is the better player.  I don't know about you but I'd rather have Josh Hamilton in the middle of my order than Ben Zobrist.  Or how about Jason Kubel vs Michael Saunders?  I can't imagine you'd find too many GM's willing to make that trade, yet Saunders finished with a higher WAR. 

For the record, I think that given the fact that the Triple Crown hasn't been won since 1967 and given the fact that the Tigers are in the playoffs and the Angels are not, I don't see how you can not give the MVP Award to Miguel Cabrera.  If I had a vote, it would go to Miguel Cabrera.  

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