Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Updated GOP Presidential Hopefuls

Michelle Bachmann and Jon Huntsman are now both officially in.  Sarah Palin, Rudy Gulliani and Rick Perry are still waffling.   If I was a betting man, I'd guess Perry jumps in but Palin and Giuliani decide against it.  

IN: 
Mitt Romney - I don't see him overcoming his MA healthcare plan.
Tim Pawlenty - probably the fewest negatives of all the candidates but he doesn't excite many either
Michelle Bachmann - tea party favorite, nobody else's favorite, not the sharpest tool in the shed.
Ron Paul - some tea party support, little GOP support, probably too libertarian for most in the GOP
Newt Gingrich - his 3 marriages will turn away the morals group, his rhetoric will turn away moderates
Herman Cain - let get serious, an African American will not win the GOP primary's 
Jon Huntsman - he may be hurt by his connections to the Obama administration
Rick Santorum - may try to carry the 'morals' wing of the party
Gary Johnson - who? nobody knows him, no chance.

UNDECIDED:
Sarah Palin - high negatives outside of the far right, grasp of issues still lacking
Rick Perry - Governor of Texas, he may see an opening in this weak field
George Pataki - like Perry, he may see an opening in this weak field
Rudy Giuliani - polling high but he may not have the desire for another run

OUT:
Haley Barbour - claims he doesn't have the desire
Mike Huckabee - also claims he doesn't have the desire
Donald Trump - his high negatives doomed him.
Chris Christie - I'm guessing he's aiming for 2016
Jeb Bush -too soon for another Bush IMO
Jim DeMint - little support outside of the tea party
Bobby Jindal - the GOP seems to have cooled on him
Mike Pence - seems more interested in the Indiana Governors office
Marco Rubio - needs some experience, look for a 2016 run
John Thune - not yet, perhaps 2016 for him too
Scott Brown - too moderate to get through the primaries
Mitch Daniels - family concerns keeps him out

Pawlenty has had a bad week or so and is way down in the polls, I'm guessing his chances are sliding away rather quickly.  Bachmann on the other hand had a very strong week, she's still highly unknown to a lot of people though and I think the more they find out the less they will like her.  So at this point (until Perry jumps in), it looks like Romney is the class of the field.  If I was a republican, that would scare me because I don't think he can beat Obama.  The one candidate who is currently declared who would probably have the best chance to beat Obama IMO would be Huntsman but I'm not sure he can get past the far right purity test.  Rick Perry could also probably put up a good fight if he enters (Washington outsider, tea party support, social conservative support, a track record of creating jobs and most importantly, a personality, the gay rumors may hurt though).

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