Friday, June 3, 2011

Updated GOP Presidential hopefuls

Mitt Romney officially threw his hat in the ring today.  The field seems to be shaping up some yet it's not exciting many either thus others may still be eying a run (specifically Rick Perry, George Pataki & Rudy Giuliani).  There is also still an opening for a social conservative tea party candidate (specifically Sarah Palin & Michelle Bachmann). 

IN: 
Mitt Romney - I don't see him overcoming his MA healthcare plan.
Tim Pawlenty - probably the fewest negatives of all the candidates but he doesn't excite many either
Ron Paul - some tea party support, little GOP support, probably too libertarian for most in the GOP
Newt Gingrich - his 3 marriages will turn away the morals group, his rhetoric will turn away moderates
Herman Cain - let get serious, an African American will not win the GOP primary's 
Gary Johnson - who? nobody knows him, no chance.
Rick Santorum - may try to carry the 'morals' wing of the party***

UNDECIDED:
John Huntsman - he may be hurt by his connections to the Obama administration
Sarah Palin - high negatives outside of the far right, grasp of issues still lacking
Michelle Bachmann - tea party favorite, nobody else's favorite, not the sharpest tool in the shed.
Rick Perry - Governor of Texas, he may see an opening in this weak field
George Pataki - like Perry, he may see an opening in this weak field
Rudy Giuliani - polling high but he may not have the desire for another run

OUT:
Haley Barbour - claims he doesn't have the desire
Mike Huckabee - also claims he doesn't have the desire
Donald Trump - his high negatives doomed him.
Chris Christie - I'm guessing he's aiming for 2016
Jeb Bush -too soon for another Bush IMO
Jim DeMint - little support outside of the tea party
Bobby Jindal - the GOP seems to have cooled on him
Mike Pence - seems more interested in the Indiana Governors office
Marco Rubio - needs some experience, look for a 2016 run
John Thune - not yet, perhaps 2016 for him too
Scott Brown - too moderate to get through the primaries
Mitch Daniels - family concerns keeps him out

At his point, you'd have to consider Romney & Pawlenty to be the class of the field.  Problem for the GOP in this, either would be hard pressed to beat Obama in the general election (unless the economy weakens considerably or there is some unforeseen terrorist attack).   The best thing that could happen for the Dems would be that Palin and Bachmann both also jump in and create a circus of a primary season (the GOP should be strongly discouraging a run from either, neither would stand any chance in a general election against Obama and would be doing more harm than good).

***Edited to add Rick Santorum to the In list.  

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