Monday, February 1, 2016

Republican Presidential Primary

I opined about the Democratic Presidential primary a few days ago, so I think it only fair that I also opine a bit about the Republican Presidential primary.  First off, a disclaimer, and it should be pretty obvious if you have ever read my blog, I'm a lifelong registered Democrat, I have pretty low regard for most Republicans and the policies that they espouse, I just don't feel they benefit most Americans and further that they are the primary cause for many of the problems that the country now faces.  Republican voters are not happy with the Republican establishment either, they have been voting in Republican candidates for years now and they have accomplished very little of what they promised they'd do (granted, the far right wing media may have set some unrealistic expectations for them) and the anti-establishment furvor in the country right now is at a fever pitch.  That has led to the rise of anti-establishment candidates like Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.  Unfortunately, Trump and Cruz and the other anti-establishment candidates prescription to fix the country would just take us further to the right and that's a bad prescription for America.  It's really too bad some of these voters don't give Bernie Sanders a closer look, as IMO he's the only candidate outside of the establishment on either party that is proposing realistic solutions to our most glaring issues (inequality, campaign fiance, healthcare, climate change, sentencing reform, etc).

Back to the candidates, if I as a Democrat had to pick one to vote for, I'd probably go with Rand Paul, only because he would be the lesser of the other evils that are running.   He would at least push for sentencing reform, fight against the Patriot Act and not rush us into WWIII like some of the other candidates would.  That being said, the rest of his policies are pretty much to the far right and would not benefit most Americans.

I can see some of the appeal to Donald Trump to many on the right, they don't want to admit that the right wing policies have been the problem with their party, they just want to believe the issue is with the establishment.  I'm guessing they would be very underwhelmed by a Trump Presidency though if he were to be elected as his policies would no doubt be a disaster.

As a Democrat, best case scenario would be Ted Cruz winning the Republican Primary as he would no doubt be the easiest of all the Republican candidates for Hilary Clinton or Bernie Sanders to beat.  Outside of the far right wing base, his popularity is abysmal, not too many people like him or think that he would be able to break through the gridlock that has crippled Washington.

Marco Rubio is probably the best chance for the remaining establishment candidates, but the far right still hold his fight for immigration reform against him, they also see his path to Presidency as too similar to that of the much hated and despised Barack Obama rise (i.e. young and charismatic but lacking in experience and accomplishments).    

Jeb Bush has got a ton of establishment support and donor money but I don't see him overcoming the fact that nobody seems to want a third Bush Presidency.  Add in his lack of charisma and uninspiring demeanor and you've got a loser of a candidate.  The anti-establishment furvor is also working against him.

For some reason, some people still like Chris Christie, they see him as a tough talking take no prisoners fighter for their ideals.  He's very unpopular in New Jersey though and you just should not be able to overlook the "bridgegate" scandal, it was really that deplorable.

If Republicans were smart, they'd throw their support behind John Kasich, he's really the only candidate with at least some track record of political success, he could technically be considered an outsider and he's pretty popular in what is considered a swing state.  Republicans are not that smart though so don't look for it to happen.

It's long past time that the likes of Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum and Jim Gilmore to set aside their Presidential ambitions and clear the path for the eventual nominee.  I suspect all will drop out shortly after the New Hampshire primary.  

For the record, I suspect that Donald Trump will easily win the Iowa Caucus.

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