Here's how I think the Twins rank those 6:
- Brady Aiken - LHP - Cardif By The Sea, California HS
- Carlos Rodon - LHP - North Carolina State
- Tyler Kolek - RHP - Sheppard, Texas HS
- Nick Gordon - SS - Windermere, Florida HS
- Aaron Nola - RHP - Louisiana State
- Alex Jackson - C - Escondido, California HS
In my opinion, Aiken is the top player in this draft, there is no way he get's past 4 other teams and drops to the Twins at number 5. He's tall, he's lean, he's left handed, his fastball hits the mid 90's and as he develops he could add several mph's to that, he's also got a nice breaking ball and a very good change up, and most importantly he's got an easy motion that doesn't put a lot of strain on his arm. The only reason I could see for the Astros to pass on him with the top pick is that they would prefer someone who is closer to being ready (i.e. Rodon).
Speaking of Rodon, if the draft was last fall, Rodon would have been the clear number 1 pick, he had a stellar Sophomore year at N.C. State. As a Junior, he struggled some early but came on strong towards the end of the year. His fast ball sits in the mid 90's, and he's also got a nice hard slider and a decent change up, he's also left handed which adds to his value. He could go anywhere from 1-6 in the draft, I would expect top 2 though. I doubt that he lasts to the Twins selection at number 5, but I would hope that the Twins would pick him if he did, he's got top of the rotation potential.
Tyler Kolek has the most electric arm in the draft, his fastball has been clocked at 100 mph. He simply overpowered his high school competition. He without a doubt has top of the rotation potential. Picking a hard throwing right-handed high school pitcher does come with some risks though, mainly can his arm hold up over the long haul. There have also been some concerns about his control and the quality of his secondary pitches, I would think he would be worth the risk if he drops to the Twins at number 5 though, how often do you get the chance to add an arm like that to your system?
From what I can tell, the Twins rank Nick Gordon as the top position player in the draft, he's a smooth fielding shortstop with a great pedigree (his father is Tom Gordon, his brother is Dee Gordon). If there are questions about Gordon, it's his offense and how it translates to tougher competition. From all reports though, he has gotten much bigger and stronger over the past year and was driving the ball regularly this past season. The big question with Gordon to me is if his upside is high enough to warrant the 5th overall pick in the draft. Given that the Twins are fairly deep in starting pitchers in their system and given that they used their top pick last year on a high school pitcher, I would expect that Gordon is the Twins pick this year (if he's available and if the 3 pitchers mentioned above are all gone as expected).
Aaron Nola in my opinion is the most intriguing name in this draft. Scouts say he has 4 good pitches, and knows how to pitch better than any pitcher in the draft, they also say he could possibly be the quickest draft pick to reach the major leagues, but, they also say none of his 4 pitches are outstanding and his upside is just that of a middle of the rotation starting pitcher. The question then becomes, how do you value a guy like that? Think of it as the difference between Justin Verlander and Mike Leake, both were top 10 draft picks, both are solid major leaguers and both have been for quite some time, but if you had to win one game who would you rather have on the mound? Obviously, it would be Verlander, and Aaron Nola is much more like Mike Leake than Justin Verlander, that doesn't mean Nola would be a bad pick, it just means you probably won't be getting a future Cy Young Award winner with him (and when drafting someone number 5 overall, that is something you'd like to think would be a possibility). All that being said, I like Nola, I think his stuff is much better than it's being given credit for, he's an incredibly polished pitcher, his fastball is up to the mid 90's and it has lots of movement to it, mix in his secondary stuff and his poise on the mound and I think you've got a pretty good pitcher who could eventually fit into the top of a rotation, I wouldn't be at all upset to see the Twins draft him.
Alex Jackson is the other name I see on the top of most prospect lists, he appears to have the best bat in the draft and given his catching skills, I've been hearing Bryce Harper comparisons for him, that's not a bad guy to be compared to. I could be wrong, but I haven't heard much steam around him where the Twins are concerned, which is a bit surprising given the dearth of top catching prospects in their system. There is also some talk that he could be moved to a corner OF spot or perhaps even 3B, especially if it means a quicker route to the major leagues. From the sounds of it he will probably be going in the top 4 so it's unlikely he'll be around for the Twins anyways. One last note with Jackson, he's represented by Scott Boros, that's not a good thing, at least as far as the Twins are concerned.
I'm going to throw 2 more possibilities out there for the Twins, just in case they want to try to get a guy for under slot money or if perhaps the top of the draft doesn't break the way they'd like (i.e. Aiken, Rodon, Kolek & Gordon all going in the top 4 and they are perhaps not sold on Nola or Jackson at number 5). The 2 guys I could see the Twins select at number 5 would be Touki Toussaint & Sean Newcomb. Both of them have top of the rotation stuff, both will be going in the top half of the first round whether drafted by the Twins or not, either may also be willing to take less than the 5th slot money to sign which would free up money for the Twins to use later on in the draft.
I can't wait! Draft days are always fun regardless of the sport. For all I know, the Twins probably wont' even pick any of the guys I listed, that's what makes drafts so fun. Once again, I predict Nick Gordon to the Twins with the 5th overall pick! Book it!
For the record, I readily admit, I'm not scout, I'm just a lifelong baseball fanatic. My opinions are based upon: 1) what people who are much smarter than me are saying about these guys, 2) performance, 3) measurable, 4) projectability and 5) video evidence (thank God for YouTube!!!).
Speaking of Rodon, if the draft was last fall, Rodon would have been the clear number 1 pick, he had a stellar Sophomore year at N.C. State. As a Junior, he struggled some early but came on strong towards the end of the year. His fast ball sits in the mid 90's, and he's also got a nice hard slider and a decent change up, he's also left handed which adds to his value. He could go anywhere from 1-6 in the draft, I would expect top 2 though. I doubt that he lasts to the Twins selection at number 5, but I would hope that the Twins would pick him if he did, he's got top of the rotation potential.
Tyler Kolek has the most electric arm in the draft, his fastball has been clocked at 100 mph. He simply overpowered his high school competition. He without a doubt has top of the rotation potential. Picking a hard throwing right-handed high school pitcher does come with some risks though, mainly can his arm hold up over the long haul. There have also been some concerns about his control and the quality of his secondary pitches, I would think he would be worth the risk if he drops to the Twins at number 5 though, how often do you get the chance to add an arm like that to your system?
From what I can tell, the Twins rank Nick Gordon as the top position player in the draft, he's a smooth fielding shortstop with a great pedigree (his father is Tom Gordon, his brother is Dee Gordon). If there are questions about Gordon, it's his offense and how it translates to tougher competition. From all reports though, he has gotten much bigger and stronger over the past year and was driving the ball regularly this past season. The big question with Gordon to me is if his upside is high enough to warrant the 5th overall pick in the draft. Given that the Twins are fairly deep in starting pitchers in their system and given that they used their top pick last year on a high school pitcher, I would expect that Gordon is the Twins pick this year (if he's available and if the 3 pitchers mentioned above are all gone as expected).
Aaron Nola in my opinion is the most intriguing name in this draft. Scouts say he has 4 good pitches, and knows how to pitch better than any pitcher in the draft, they also say he could possibly be the quickest draft pick to reach the major leagues, but, they also say none of his 4 pitches are outstanding and his upside is just that of a middle of the rotation starting pitcher. The question then becomes, how do you value a guy like that? Think of it as the difference between Justin Verlander and Mike Leake, both were top 10 draft picks, both are solid major leaguers and both have been for quite some time, but if you had to win one game who would you rather have on the mound? Obviously, it would be Verlander, and Aaron Nola is much more like Mike Leake than Justin Verlander, that doesn't mean Nola would be a bad pick, it just means you probably won't be getting a future Cy Young Award winner with him (and when drafting someone number 5 overall, that is something you'd like to think would be a possibility). All that being said, I like Nola, I think his stuff is much better than it's being given credit for, he's an incredibly polished pitcher, his fastball is up to the mid 90's and it has lots of movement to it, mix in his secondary stuff and his poise on the mound and I think you've got a pretty good pitcher who could eventually fit into the top of a rotation, I wouldn't be at all upset to see the Twins draft him.
Alex Jackson is the other name I see on the top of most prospect lists, he appears to have the best bat in the draft and given his catching skills, I've been hearing Bryce Harper comparisons for him, that's not a bad guy to be compared to. I could be wrong, but I haven't heard much steam around him where the Twins are concerned, which is a bit surprising given the dearth of top catching prospects in their system. There is also some talk that he could be moved to a corner OF spot or perhaps even 3B, especially if it means a quicker route to the major leagues. From the sounds of it he will probably be going in the top 4 so it's unlikely he'll be around for the Twins anyways. One last note with Jackson, he's represented by Scott Boros, that's not a good thing, at least as far as the Twins are concerned.
I'm going to throw 2 more possibilities out there for the Twins, just in case they want to try to get a guy for under slot money or if perhaps the top of the draft doesn't break the way they'd like (i.e. Aiken, Rodon, Kolek & Gordon all going in the top 4 and they are perhaps not sold on Nola or Jackson at number 5). The 2 guys I could see the Twins select at number 5 would be Touki Toussaint & Sean Newcomb. Both of them have top of the rotation stuff, both will be going in the top half of the first round whether drafted by the Twins or not, either may also be willing to take less than the 5th slot money to sign which would free up money for the Twins to use later on in the draft.
I can't wait! Draft days are always fun regardless of the sport. For all I know, the Twins probably wont' even pick any of the guys I listed, that's what makes drafts so fun. Once again, I predict Nick Gordon to the Twins with the 5th overall pick! Book it!
For the record, I readily admit, I'm not scout, I'm just a lifelong baseball fanatic. My opinions are based upon: 1) what people who are much smarter than me are saying about these guys, 2) performance, 3) measurable, 4) projectability and 5) video evidence (thank God for YouTube!!!).
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