2012 MLB Draft Thoughts

The 2012 MLB Draft starts on Monday.  Being that the Twins have the 2nd overall pick in the draft I have been paying quite a bit more attention to the draft than normal.   The general consensus seems to be that this is a down year talent wise with most of the top talent this year not quite measuring up to the top talent the past couple of years, there is no Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper available this year.  That being said, there is still some talent out there.  The following appears to be the consensus Top 10 available:

1. Mark Appel - RHP - Stanford University
2. Byron Buxton - OF - Appling County (GA) HS
3. Kevin Gausman - RHP - Louisiana State University
4. Carlos Correa - SS - Puerto Rico Baseball Academy
5. Mike Zunino - C - University of Florida
6. Kyle Zimmer - RHP - University of San Francisco
7. Max Fried - LHP - Harvard Westlake (CA) HS
8. Lucas Giolito - RHP - Harvard Westlake (CA) HS
9. Albert Amora - OF - Mater Academy (FL) 
10. Michael Wacha - RHP - Texas A&M University

As for who the Twins will be selecting at number 2 overall, using some dedcuctive reasoning, my educated guess is that it will come down to 1 of 3 players.  First off, I suspect that the Astros will select Mark Appel number 1 overall, he's got a high 90's fastball, prototypical size, decent out pitches and he's a Houston native, he would seem like a natural fit for the Astros.  If Houston were to surprise and pass on Appel, I think the Twins would probably also pass on him (he's a Scott Boras client and the Twins are notorious for staying away from Scott Boras clients).  I think you can also cross high school pitchers (Giolito & Fried) off the list, there are too many top college arms available with better track records to consider a high school pitcher at that point.  Wacha and Amora (from the list above) will probably go in the 5-13 range, I think it's very unlikely the Twins would reach on either of those 2.   That leaves 5 from my above list, given that Zimmer seemed to lose to some velocity towards the end of his college season and given that Gausman had better stats against a higher level of competition, I think you can rule Zimmer out too, if they are going with a college arm Gausman would seem like a better fit.  That narrows it down to 4, Buxton, Gausman, Correa and Zunino.  Of those 4, Zunino probably has the most limited upside, I think he can be a good solid catcher and the Twins could certainly use a catcher, I just don't see him having the upside of Buxton, Correa or Gausman.   So there it is, I think it's very likely that the Twins will choose between 1 of those 3 (Buxton, Correa or Gausman),  I can see them taking any of them too.  With the dearth of top of the rotation pitching prospects in their system, Gausman is mighty attractive, he can hit high 90's with his fastball and he supposedly has a couple very good out pitches, he'd also presumably reach the major leagues the quickest of those 3.   I'm sensing they like Buxton and Correa better than Gausman though, it'd be hard to pass on someone who can play and make an impact on every game as opposed to someone you'd be throwing out there every 5 days.   The Twins love toolsy outfielders and they don't come any more toolsy than Buxton, he is without a doubt the best athlete available in the draft, he'd probably immediately become the best athlete in the Twins system (Twins roster included).  Sports Illustrated did a real nice profile on him recently, he'd be hard to pass on if he's available.   The Twins are somewhat deep in toolsy outfielders though, so there is some thought that they'd prefer Correa.   Correa is a big, strong kid (he's only 17), I would imagine that he will grow out of the SS position at some point and move to a corner infield spot (I could envision him at 3B down the road with Miguel Sano at 1B), his upside is really unlimited.   If I had to take a guess on any of those guys, I'd guess the Twins end up selecting Carlos Correa.