LeBron's New Home?

LeBron James will be an unrestricted free agent this off season.  He told Larry King that the Cavs have the edge to re-sign him.   I'm not really buying it, I think he's ready for a change.

Here are my odds on where he ends up.

1. Cleveland (35%)
2. Chicago (20%)
3. New Jersey (15%)
4. LA Clippers (15%)
5. New York (10%) 
6. Miami (5%) 

Note that I have Cleveland as the favorite at 35%, that still leaves a 65% chance that he leaves.  

See the next page for my in-depth analysis.  

Cleveland makes the most sense for several reasons, the biggest being money, the NBA rules allow for the a free agents current team to pay more than any other team, in this case the Cavs can pay him about $30 million more than any other team, that's a lot of money.  LeBron is also an Ohio native, staying with the Cavs makes a lot of sense for personal, family and business reasons.  The question with the Cavs is, can they put a better team around him so he can be playing for a championship, that's up to debate, I'm thinking no. 

Chicago makes sense for a couple of reasons, one being that they don't currently have a head coach and you'd better believe that they would all but let LeBron pick who he wants coaching him.  Next, he'd have some good young talent playing with him in Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah & Luol Deng.  Chicago is also a big market and you've got to think that LeBron may be thinking bigger than Cleveland.  Lastly, even Obama thinks the Bulls would be a good fit. 

Don't scoff at the suggestion of the Nets, despite coming off the worst record in basketball they have many positives to sell.  First is the ownership, Jay-Z has a partial ownership and from the sounds of it he and LeBron are tight, add in the deep pockets of Russian tycoon Mikhail Prokhorov and they become even more attractive.  Just like the Bulls the Nets have some decent young talent to surround him with too in Brock Lopez, Devin Harris, Yi Jianlian and the number 3 overall pick in the upcoming draft.  Lastly, add in the fact that the Nets will be moving to a new arena in Brooklyn in a couple of years, that market has to be attractive to LeBron.

Don't scoff at the suggestion of the Clippers either.  The general thought is that LeBron has outgrown Cleveland and he will want a bigger spotlight, LA certainly fits that criteria.  The Lakers can't afford Kobe and LeBron so that leaves the Clippers.  They could also sell the idea of playing with Blake Griffin and Baron Davis.

I keep hearing lots of speculation about the Knicks too but I just don't see it happening unless they can somehow swing a deal to sign LeBron and another top notch free agent together (think Chris Bosh or Dwayne Wade).  I'm not sure the Knicks could come up with the cash to sign 2 players of that caliber though (although the Celtics somehow managed to do it with KG, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce).  I think if LeBron ends up in New York it will be more about the NY market and less about winning a championship. 

Miami is the only other destination that I could see LeBron playing in, especially if they can keep Dwayne Wade around.  Miami and South Beach are not a tough sell.  The question being, can they pay both LeBron and Dwayne?  Doubtful without some creative accounting.