As for the first pick of the draft, I fully expect (and hope) that the Diamondbacks select Vanderbilt SS Dansby Swanson, he seems to clearly be the best player available this year and he plays at a position of need for the organization. It should be a no-brainer, please don't overthink things D-backs.
As for the Twins? Given that they will be picking 6, and there seems to be a building consensus on the top 6-8 players, it's really not too hard to get a read on what they will be thinking (i.e. process of elimination). Dansby Swanson will not be available, that's pretty much a given. You can probably say the same thing about Brendan Rodgers, someone will be picking him before pick number 6. That leaves about 4-5 guys that I think you can assume the Twins have a high level of interest in, I will rank them as follows:
- Dillon Tate - RHP - UC Santa Barbara
- Alex Bregman - SS - Louisiana State
- Kyle Tucker - OF - Plant HS, Tampa, FL
- Tyler Jay - LHP - Illinois
- Daz Cameron - OF - Eagles Landing Christian Academy, McDonough, GA
Honestly, I could live with any of these picks. The guy I'm probably most intrigued by though is Kyle Tucker, the most common comparison for him is his brother Preston Tucker. Preston shot through the Astros system and is now one of the best young players in baseball, many are saying that Kyle is a better prospect than his brother was at the same point and that he has a much sweeter swing than Preston. How does that not intrigue you? I'm not sure the Twins need OF depth in their system, but I don't think teams should necessarily be drafting for need in the MLB draft anyways. Personally, Tucker would be my pick if I'm the Twins GM (if he's available of course).
Tate and Jay are the best pitching prospects available, both have some questions though. Tate has been fading a bit as his college season has progressed (he has never pitched the amount of innings as he has this season), but scouts still love his arm, his fastball reaches the mid 90's and he's got some nice offspeed pitches to go with it. Jay meanwhile has been used out of the bullpen which brings up the question of why someone with that arm and repertoire of pitches isn't starting and how will that translate to starting once he get's to professional baseball. From the bullpen, Jay's fastball reaches the high 90's, he's also got an above average slider and curve, and to top it off he has excellent control.
Alex Bregman has been compared to the Red Sox Dustin Pedroia and who couldn't use a Dustin Pedroia? I'm not sure that his upside is that high though and I'm guessing the Twins don't draft a SS first overall 2 years in a row (although admittedly one of them could be shifted to 2B).
The problem with Daz Cameron is not talent, he's got loads of it, it's that he's represented by Scott Boras and will reportedly want lots of money to sign. Overpaying is not generally the Twins MO, so I suspect that they will pass on Cameron.
Now for my prediction, I suspect that Swanson, Rodgers, Bregman, Tucker and Jay all go in some order ahead of the Twins number 6 overall pick. In that scenario, I suspect that the Twins will be drafting Dillon Tate with their selection. Book it!
For the record, my analysis the past couple years has been pretty spot on: 2014, 2013, 2012
Tate and Jay are the best pitching prospects available, both have some questions though. Tate has been fading a bit as his college season has progressed (he has never pitched the amount of innings as he has this season), but scouts still love his arm, his fastball reaches the mid 90's and he's got some nice offspeed pitches to go with it. Jay meanwhile has been used out of the bullpen which brings up the question of why someone with that arm and repertoire of pitches isn't starting and how will that translate to starting once he get's to professional baseball. From the bullpen, Jay's fastball reaches the high 90's, he's also got an above average slider and curve, and to top it off he has excellent control.
Alex Bregman has been compared to the Red Sox Dustin Pedroia and who couldn't use a Dustin Pedroia? I'm not sure that his upside is that high though and I'm guessing the Twins don't draft a SS first overall 2 years in a row (although admittedly one of them could be shifted to 2B).
The problem with Daz Cameron is not talent, he's got loads of it, it's that he's represented by Scott Boras and will reportedly want lots of money to sign. Overpaying is not generally the Twins MO, so I suspect that they will pass on Cameron.
Now for my prediction, I suspect that Swanson, Rodgers, Bregman, Tucker and Jay all go in some order ahead of the Twins number 6 overall pick. In that scenario, I suspect that the Twins will be drafting Dillon Tate with their selection. Book it!
For the record, my analysis the past couple years has been pretty spot on: 2014, 2013, 2012
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